Headwind Là Gì

It is almost impossible these days to lớn listen to lớn a significant business presentation such as an earnings Call, an investor day, or an internal town hall without hearing business leaders use the terms business headwinds and / or tailwinds. There are many other aviation terms used as business jargon these days including “runway,” “lift,” “Mach speed,” “turbulence,” và of course “crash landing.”

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Tailwinds

From an aviation perspective, a tailwind is wind pushing the tail of the aircraft and helping it go faster. In the United States, the Jetstream always goes west khổng lồ east and planes flying from the west coast lớn the east coast go faster and use less fuel because of the tailwinds. That’s why it takes 6 hours to lớn get from Thủ đô New York khổng lồ San Francisco but only 5 to get from San Francisteo lớn Thủ đô New York. In business, the term “tailwinds” refers lớn or describes a situation or condition that will move growth, revenues, or profits higher. For example, lower gasoline prices will reduce the forecasted transportation costs of a manufacturing business và therefore increase profitability.

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Headwinds

From an aviation perspective, a headwind is wind pushing against the front of the aircraft which slows it down. Since the Jetstream goes west lớn east, planes flying west are always dealing with headwinds; the only question based on the meteorological conditions is how strong are the headwinds? In business, the term “headwinds” are the opposite of the tailwinds. Headwinds in business are situations or conditions that make growth harder. Just this week, for example, Coca-Cola announced that they are forecasting their earnings to plunge by 55%. One of the reasons is the “tailwind” of a healthier consumer base looking at lifestyle and fitness more than ever.As our exposedjunction.com cộ team travels the globe working with clients in the areas of business acumen, business leadership, and strategic business selling, we are exposed khổng lồ many different macro và micro economic conditions for integration inlớn our business simulations & client engagements.

The rest of this blog will nói qua some of our insights and ideas on the tailwinds and headwinds facing our clients over the next six months. US Economy

As we Đánh Giá all of the data and talk with our clients about forecasts, orders, inventories, and shipments, it is clear to lớn us that the recovery from the recession is evolving lớn a more complex stage & for business leaders this creates some perplexing challenges.

There are still some very strong tailwinds that are supporting growth. As a student of macroeconomics, all of the data shows that we still have a very weak recovery relative sầu lớn previous recessions. By this point in the recovery, we should be much stronger which means there are slow & steady tailwinds that are going khổng lồ continue lớn gently push recovery over the next six months.

The two main drags on the current US economy are housing và automobiles. It is safe to assume that the tailwinds of the recovery are going to lớn push these two segments as there is evidence of svào pent-up demand for autos (based on the age of the current autos on the roads today), & there may be even more pent-up dem& for housing based on supply and demand and increased disposable income in the new workers entering the workforce. In our opinion, there is a lot of growth that is going lớn happen in these two GDP drivers this year, which is good news for many core manufacturers và service providers.

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Another key driver of the GDP is consumer spending & that has been okay, but not great. The unemployment rate is still relatively high as compared to previous recoveries, & I think that is what

is having the most impact onthe recovery and consumer spending. As of January 2015, the unemployment rate is 5.7% which is down from 6.6% the previous January. It needs to come down more in order for the recovery lớn be in full effect, và when it does, that will be a significant tailwind to lớn all businesses in the US. With the combination of lower gasoline prices & more disposable income going inlớn the ecosystem, those will be significant tailwinds for organizations producing and selling products and services to consumers.

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While it is clear that the economy is consumer driven, manufacturing và industry – B2B – are also critical parts of the business ecosystem and have tailwinds và headwinds. One of the biggest “a-ha moments” participants get from one of our business acumen simulations is a deeper understanding & appreciation of inventory management. As we look at the real-world data, inventories are down, which means there will be no cut backs in production or orders, which is another tailwind. In the meantime, however, I can argue that one of the reasons inventories are non-existent is because of very slow loan growth. If there is no capital being invested, manufacturers are not going to tie their cash up in inventories. Based on how we build our economic models, I would say that the US economy has a lot of runway & room for growth once there is an infusion of fresh capital.

Regarding financing và capital, in my opinion, they are the strongest headwinds the economy faces. As interest rates climb – & they will climb during 2015 – there will be pressure as a result of a stronger economy. The real kiểm tra will be when the dem& for money is stronger than the economic recovery; if it is too strong, that will be a huge headwind for the rest of the year.

Another headwind is the strength of the US dollar because it is going to lớn limit the export markets, and that is going impact just about every company with the exception of luxury goods và svào brands such as Apple.

I spent some time in Europe over the winter break & I am not sure US business leaders are aware of the headwinds Europe is actually facing, which will impact buying và import power even further. There are significant labor issues, a lack of coordination between countries, and major geopolitical issues being played out in the streets. In addition, the continued depreciation of the triệu Euro will drive sầu some different behaviors. In fact, I read last week that the Central Bank of Europe is doing everything possible through programs & other manipulations khổng lồ ease the depreciation. Continued currency depreciation will increase European exports, which may ultimately fuel some growth and turn the headwind into lớn a tailwind. Add khổng lồ that lower oil prices and Europe may be in a different place by the over of the year.In summary, understanding the flow of the headwinds & tailwinds is an important part of business acumen. I tried khổng lồ tóm tắt some macroeconomic perspectives about the winds of business as they relate with the work we vì chưng in training, building simulations, and helping our clients achieve sầu their business results. Please feel miễn phí lớn reach out if you have any questions.